What your car will be worth, year by year
| Year | Estimated Value | Percent of Price | Loss That Year |
|---|
Values include the mileage and condition adjustments; years beyond the horizon you entered still show, since the flattening curve is the whole point. Estimates follow typical segment averages, not any specific model's history.
| Segment | Year-1 Drop | Each Year After | 5-Year Retention | 10-Year Retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pickup truck | ~15% | ~8% | ~61% | ~40% |
| Sports car | ~15% | ~9% | ~58% | ~36% |
| SUV / crossover | ~18% | ~10% | ~54% | ~32% |
| Compact car | ~18% | ~11% | ~51% | ~29% |
| Minivan | ~20% | ~11% | ~50% | ~28% |
| Sedan (midsize/full-size) | ~22% | ~12% | ~47% | ~25% |
| Luxury vehicle | ~25% | ~13% | ~43% | ~21% |
| Electric vehicle | ~25% | ~15% | ~39% | ~17% |
Typical retention patterns consistent with published industry depreciation studies; individual models scatter widely around every row, and EV retention in particular has swung year to year with tax-credit rule changes and battery-range expectations.
| Factor | Typical Effect | How This Calculator Applies It |
|---|---|---|
| High mileage | Roughly 3% off per 10,000 miles above average | 0.3% per 1,000 miles above a 12,000-mi/yr baseline, capped at −25% |
| Low mileage | Modest premium | No bonus applied (conservative) |
| Clean condition | ±5-10% vs average | ×1.05 clean, ×1.00 average, ×0.90 rough |
| Brand & model | The single biggest spread | Reflected only through the segment row |
| Accident history | Often 10-20% discount after major repair | Not modeled |
A depreciation curve is a smooth average over a lumpy market: fuel prices, redesigns, recalls, and rebate programs all shove specific models off trend for a season. Treat the output as a planning number, not a trade-in quote.
Depreciation isn't linear. A new car sheds value fastest the moment it leaves the lot, keeps falling steeply through year two, and then settles into a gentler decline that runs for years. Modeling it well means using two rates: a bigger year-one drop and a smaller annual rate after that.
Value(N) = price × r1 × r2N−1, where r1 is the segment's year-one retention and r2 its retention each year after. Mileage and condition then scale the result: the mileage penalty compounds with the years driven, and the condition multiplier applies throughout.
Enter the purchase price, pick the closest segment, and set condition and annual miles. The years field sets the headline number; the table runs further so you can see where the curve flattens. For a used car, estimate from its original sticker and mentally start the clock at its current age.
A $42,000 midsize SUV, average condition, 12,000 miles a year. Year one takes 18%: it's worth $34,440. Then 10% a year off the remaining balance: $30,996 after two, $27,896 after three, $25,107 after four, and $22,596 after five. That's 53.8% retained, $19,404 gone. Roughly 39% of that five-year loss lands in the first year alone: $7,560.
Mileage shows up clearly in the same example. Drive 18,000 miles a year instead of 12,000 and the five-year value slips to about $20,562: 6,000 extra miles a year cost roughly $2,000 of value by year five, which is the quiet argument for buying something you'll enjoy keeping.
The biggest hit is year one, typically 15 to 25 percent depending on the segment, then 8 to 13 percent a year after that. Combine them and the average vehicle holds roughly 50 to 55 percent of its price at five years and 30 to 40 percent at ten. Exact curves vary by model, brand, and market conditions.
Electric vehicles and luxury nameplates lose value fastest, with year-one drops commonly near 25 percent and five-year retention often under 45 percent. Pickups, sports cars, and mainstream SUVs hold value best; trucks commonly retain about 60 percent at five years. The pattern follows supply, demand, and brand-loyalty, not sticker price.
Three to five years old is the classic sweet spot. The steepest part of the curve, the first two years, is already behind the car, while the remaining 8-12 percent annual declines are gentle and roughly linear. A 5-year-old car has typically lost half its value but usually has a decade of useful life left.
Directly: your monthly lease payment mostly pays for the depreciation the lender expects during the term, plus a rent charge. The end-of-lease residual value is a depreciation forecast, so vehicles predicted to hold value (trucks, popular SUVs) lease cheaper per month than fast-depreciating ones at the same sticker price.
Standard policies pay actual cash value, the depreciated market value, not what you paid or owe. After a major repair you may also be able to claim diminished value, the market discount a repaired car carries. If you totaled a car you owe more on than it's worth, gap insurance covers the difference.
Somewhat. Keep miles near or under about 12,000 a year, maintain the paint and interior, keep complete service records, and choose mainstream configurations and colors when buying, since odd combinations shrink the buyer pool. The segment curve itself is out of your hands; the spread around it isn't.